In an excellent
article appearing in the Business Line (June 16, 2003) S.Venkitaramanan
analysed the changing nature of the capital flows. Of particular
relevance is the net equity flows to developing countries that
are expected to fuel capital markets and which have a relation
with the quality of Corporate Governance. The trends noticed while
not encouraging may also have a message of the potential to shift
the developing countries lending to developed world into equity
capital in emerging / transitional economies.
The
article draws attention to a recent Review of Global Development
Finance by the World Bank issued in March 2003 which makes the
important point that, over the years, developing countries have
turned out to be net exporters of capital instead of being recipients
of capital from the developed world. On a net basis, capital is
no longer flowing form high-income countries to developing economies
that need it and which casts doubt on the declarations of the
various developed countries, including the recent statements following
the Evian Summit about their concern for poverty alleviation and
determination to increase aid flows.
Table
below brings out a picture of the net capital flows to developing
countries, starting from 1997 to 2002.
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
Net
equity flows of which |
196 |
182 |
194 |
187 |
177 |
152 |
|
Foreign
Direct Investment |
169 |
175 |
179 |
160 |
172 |
143 |
|
Portfolio |
27 |
7 |
15 |
26 |
6 |
9.4 |
|
Official
Creditors, of which |
13 |
34 |
14 |
(-) 6 |
28 |
16 |
|
World
Bank |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
1.5 |
|
IMF |
3 |
14 |
(-) 2 |
(-) 10 |
19 |
15 |
|
Private
Creditors |
89 |
2.3 |
0.5 |
5 |
(-) 25 |
(-) 9 |
|
Short-term
debt flows |
5 |
(-) 64 |
(-) 21 |
(-) 9 |
(-) 16 |
6 |
|
Movement
in reserves |
52 |
16 |
37 |
55 |
80 |
110 |
|
Memo
item: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Workers’
remittance |
62 |
60 |
65 |
65 |
72 |
80 |
In
2002, the total of net private debt and equity and net official
flows from developed countries was $ 192 billion, down from $
210 billion in 2001 and $ 215 billion in 2000. There has been
a steady decline in these flows since 1997, when they had peaked
at $ 325 billion, the article points.
If
we take into account the reverse flow of resources represented
by the growth in official reserves, the net outflow from developed
countries would be seen to be substantially less.
Foreign
direct investment also flows into the richer countries from the
poorer.
The
current account deficit of the US itself absorbs more than $ 500
billion a year from the rest of the world, mostly from the poorer
countries, which are running a current account surplus. Hence,
the conclusion that poor countries are exporting capital to the
rich.
Debt
flows declined to as low as $ 7.2 billion in 2002 from $ 102 billion
in 1997 as evident from Table-2. The net resource flow from the
World Bank is relatively small, compared to the influence it commands
in the corridors of powers.
Table.2
Net
debt flows to developing countries
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
Net
debt flows, of which |
102.1 |
57.4 |
13.9 |
(-)
1.0 |
3.2 |
7.2 |
|
Official
Creditors of which |
13 |
34.1 |
13.5 |
(-)
6.2 |
28 |
16.2 |
|
World
Bank |
9.2 |
8.7 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
|
IMF |
3.4 |
14.1 |
(-)
2.2 |
(-)
10.6 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
Private
Creditors, of which |
89.1 |
23.3 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
(-)
24.8 |
(-)
9.0 |
|
Banks |
43.1 |
51.4 |
(-)
5.9 |
2.6 |
(-)
11.8 |
-
16.0 |
In
addition, there were equity flows in the form of FDI and portfolio.
Equity flows have been significantly in excess of debt flows,
making them an important component of resource transfers from
developed world to the developing world. The reverse flow is represented
by change in reserves. This pattern is seen in Table 3.
Table.3
Net
equity flows to developing countries
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
Change
in reserves |
53 |
17 |
37 |
55 |
80 |
110 |
The
increase in reserves flow back to the developed countries, in
effect offsetting much of the resource flow as exists from the
developed parts of the world to the developing parts.
In
addition, there is the reverse foreign direct investment flow
from the poorer countries to the richer ones – which is quite
substantial.
The
World Bank report shows the important role played by workers’
remittance in the flow of finances to developing countries. Workers’
remittance increased from $62 billion in 1997 to $80 billion in
2002. They are higher than most other forms of assistance.
Resources
that should be used in developing countries for their development
are today invested in the securities of richer countries.
The
total reserves of the developing countries account to as high
a figure as $888 billion, which represents a loan by the poorer
countries to the developed world. …the resources of the “robust”
developing world appear to be lent to the consumption and investment
needs of the developed world.
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